Research projects
Research projects
2023 – 2024, "Sustainable Finance", Researcher
University of Luxembourg, Ministry of the Environment, Climate and Sustainable Development
2021 – 2025, “Financial Liquidity and Sustainability”, Researcher
National Office for Research, Development, and Innovation – OTKA, NKFIH, K-138826
2018 – 2021, “Financial and public services”, Head of research
Ministry of Human Resources, Higher Educational Institutional Excellence Program, FIKP
2018 – 2019, “Bolyai Plus Grant for research dissemination”, Researcher
Hungarian Academy of Sciences
2016 – 2019 Bolyai János Scholarship, “Regulation of lending markets”, Researcher
Hungarian Academy of Sciences
2011 – Member of the Scientific Committee of the Annual Financial Market Liquidity Conference
2011 – 2012, “Network analysis of the Hungarian interbank deposit market”, Head of research
Central Bank of Hungary
2011 – 2011, “Modeling market microstructure with interacting agents”, Head of research
Morgan Stanley
2011 – 2011, “Order execution strategies – How traders do it?”, Head of research
MSCI
2010 – 2010, “Feasibility study to examine the potential need for a student lending facility at European level”, N° EAC/47/2009, Senior researcher
European Commission, Directorate-General for Education and Culture
2010 – 2010, “The role of loans in financing vocational education and training in Europe”, N° AO/RPA/PLI-PSZO/Loans/016/09, Head of research
CEDEFOP, European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training
2007 – 2008, “European perspectives of student lending”, Senior researcher
Collegium Budapest, Institute for Advanced Studies and British Council
2006 – 2007, “Future of higher education in Europe, International comparative analysis”, Researcher
British Council
2005 – 2007, “Complex systems, Risk management of a special credit portfolio”, Researcher
Collegium Budapest, Institute for Advanced Studies
2004 – 2006, “Stochastic systems and modeling of financial markets”, Researcher
National Office for Research, Development, and Innovation, OTKA 047193
2004 – 2005, “Connection of pension and student loan systems”, Researcher
Hungarian Ministry of Education
My research activity corresponds to three more or less overlapping research lines: corporate sustainability, household finance, and systemic risk.
1. Corporate sustainability
Moral hazard: In a theoretical model, we analyzed the effects of state subsidy on the behavior of the firm under asymmetric information (Berlinger, Lovas, and Juhász, 2017). We showed that in principle, an optimally designed state subsidy improves incentives. In another paper, we investigate the same question in a more complex setting: “Social enterprise under double moral hazard”.
Corporate misconducts: Most of the operational risk events (internal and external frauds, damage to physical assets, business disruptions, etc.) can be the manifestations of corporate misconduct also reflected in legal liabilities and regulatory fines. We have access to the most comprehensible database of corporate operational risk events, SAS Global Oprisk, containing the records of more than 34 thousand losses worldwide that are above a threshold of $100 thousand. In (Berlinger, Keresztúri, Lublóy, and Vőneki, 2021 and 2022), we examined loss frequencies and severities and found that country-level governance indicators are not significant explanatory variables, while press freedom is of key importance. In a country with freer media, more and larger losses are reported. We hypothesized that firms have strong incentives to hide corporate misconduct and estimated the number and size of hidden losses for each country in the sample. Fraud-detection differences in the financial and non-financial sectors are discussed in (Keresztúri, Berlinger, and Lublóy, 2022).
Following this research line, we continued our analysis at a firm level by creating a theoretical model of corporate catastrophe and testing it empirically “Self-regulation, media pressure, and corporate catastrophes” (Berlinger, Keresztúri, Lublóy, 2025). In another paper titled “Environmental policy and stakeholder engagement: Incident-based cross-country analysis of firm-level greenwashing practices”, we conceptualized corporate greenwashing and quantified its magnitude (Keresztúri, Berlinger, Lublóy, 2025). We published a systematic literature survey "Quantifying firm-level greenwashing: A systematic literature review" (Lublóy, Keresztúri, Berlinger, 2025). Currently, we are working on a policy paper on "Why should green communication be an aggravating circumstance in environmental crimes?". In another paper, titled "Green lemon market", we build an equilibrium model under asymmetric information that explains the coexistence of brown, green, and greenwashing companies.
2. Household finance
Student loans: In my Ph.D. thesis, I modeled income-contingent student loan systems. At the same time, I was involved in the design and implementation of the Hungarian student loan system. Later, as a researcher at the Collegium Budapest Institute for Advanced Studies, my research topic was the optimal control of the Hungarian student loan system. I advised the Bulgarian and Albanian governments on the design of their national student loan systems. Then, as a senior researcher, I participated in two European-level projects on student lending. In the CEDEFOP project, I researched the possibilities of extending student loans to vocational education and lifelong learning by reviewing and evaluating existing systems. In the framework of a research project initiated by The European Commission and led by Professor Nicholas Barr of the London School of Economics, we worked on the design of a new European-level student loan scheme for internationally mobile students. This research formed the basis for the Erasmus+ program, which was launched in 2015. The findings of our research were published in (Berlinger, 2009) and several policy papers.
In 2018, inconsistent interest rate policies allowed Hungarian students to arbitrage with student loans. We are just about to finalize a paper titled “Unexplored opportunities: The case of finance students with student loan arbitrage” where we investigate why finance students do not take advantage of this massive arbitrage opportunity. I also work on my paper titled “A joint model of student loan and pension savings” in which I propose a model to make student loan and pension systems more sustainable.
Mortgage markets: Hungary was hit hard by the 2008 financial crisis due to its large stock of FX-denominated mortgages. We proposed to extend the income-contingent repayment scheme (introduced first in student lending) to non-paying FX mortgages (Berlinger and Walter, 2015). In line with this idea, we made several media appearances (FinLab blog, radio interviews, etc.) and were invited to a discussion by the Central Bank of Hungary. In the following research project, we investigated why unhedged households tend to choose so risky products such as FX or adjustable-rate loans and proposed regulatory changes to avoid this (Berlinger, 2019; Banai, Berlinger, and Dömötör, 2021). In a recent paper, we examined the role of psychological factors in financial decisions (Berlinger, Kiss, and Khayouti, 2022). In the framework of a 3-year research grant from the Ministry of Human Resources (“Financial and public services”, 2018-2021), we conducted a survey in a disadvantaged region on the effects of overdue debts on employment, bank account, and physical and mental health of the family members of the borrowers (Berlinger, Dobránszky-Bartus, and Molnár, 2021). Based on our findings, we published a paper titled “Modern pillories: Overdue debts of the poor” in which we derive both the private and the socially optimal debt relief programs and formulate policy recommendations to enhance financial inclusion (Berlinger, Bihary, Dobránszky-Bartus, and Molnár, 2023). Continuing this research line, we work on a paper titled "Empirical Laffer-curve of household debts and the optimal debt relief".
3. Systemic risk
Corporate risk management: Corporate-level risk management practices may stabilize or destabilize the economy at a macro level. In (Berlinger, Bihary, and Walter, 2017 and 2018), we analyzed the advantages of corporate cash-pool systems and derived a valuation formula inspired by option pricing methods. In (Berlinger, Dömötör, and Szűcs, 2021), we examined the trading data of clients of a large investment bank, looking for irrational patterns and found traces of behavioral biases such as break-even and house money effects.
Central clearing: Central clearing counterparties have become key players in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, as the regulator now requires most of the OTC transactions to be cleared centrally. Between 2013 and 2022, we validated the risk models of KELER, the central clearing counterparty in Hungary. As a result of this consultancy work, two articles have been published in prominent scientific journals related to optimal margin strategies (Berlinger, Dömötör, and Illés, 2019a,b).
Financial networks: In a research project initiated by the Central Bank of Hungary, I investigated the transactional data of the interbank deposit market, estimated bilateral partner limits, and proposed a new innovative method to alert crises (Berlinger, 2017). The idea is that a sudden concentration of the implicit partner limits may indicate an upcoming crisis even if aggregate data do not show any changes. In another paper “Interpersonal versus interbank lending markets: The role of intermediation in risk sharing”, we compared the interpersonal network of informal debts in a village economy where most people live in poverty and financial exclusion to a highly professional interbank network of unsecured loans (Berlinger, Gosztonyi, Havran, Pollák, 2022). Continuing this research line, we aim to explain the “Emergence of a core-periphery structure” by the special structure of bilateral partner limits.
2013 – 2022, KELER, Hungarian Central Counterparty, Validation of risk models
2011, Albanian Government, World Bank project, Design of a student loan system
2008, Bulgarian Government, World Bank project, Design of a student loan system
2006 – 2008, Hungarian Post Ltd., Corporate liquidity management
2007, Generali-Providencia Insurance Company, Derivative pricing
2006, Hungarian Ministry of Social Affairs and Labor, Feasibility study on student lending in vocational education
2004 – 2005, Hungarian Student Loan Centre, Stability analysis
2002, Hungarian Development Bank, Student loan alternatives
1999 – 2001, Hungarian Ministry of Education, World Bank project, Design and implementation of student loan systems
1999, Procent Securities, Implementation of risk management systems
2023 – Co-leader of the Finance Program of the Hungarian Society of Economics
2021 – 2022, President of the Hungarian Society of Economics
2018, Secretary of the Economic Committee of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
2016 – 2022, Member of the Assembly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
2014 –, Member of the Economic Committee of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
2012 – 2017, Chair of the Finance Subcommittee of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
2010 –, Co-leader of the “Bridge to Higher Education” voluntary program for disadvantaged students
2010 –, Chair of the Board of Trustees of the Foundation for the Finance Department
2009 – 2010, Member of the Board of Trustees of the Foundation for the Development of Financial Culture
2008 – 2011, Secretary of the Finance Subcommittee of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
2008 –, Member of the Finance Subcommittee of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences