2023 – "Sustainable Finance", Research fellow

University of Luxembourg, Ministry of the Environment, Climate and Sustainable Development

2021 – “Financial Liquidity and Sustainability”, Research fellow

National Office for Research, Development, and Innovation – OTKA, NKFIH, K-138826

2018 – 2021, “Financial and public services”, Head of research

Ministry of Human Resources, Higher Educational Institutional Excellence Program, FIKP

2018 – 2019, “Bolyai Plus Grant for research dissemination”, Research fellow

Hungarian Academy of Sciences

2016 – 2019 Bolyai János Scholarship, “Regulation of lending markets”, Research fellow

Hungarian Academy of Sciences

2011 – 2012, “Network analysis of the Hungarian interbank deposit market”, Head of research

Central Bank of Hungary

2011 – 2011, “Modeling market microstructure with interacting agents”, Head of research

Morgan Stanley

2011 – 2011, “Order execution strategies – How traders do it?”, Head of research

MSCI

2010 – 2010, “Feasibility study to examine the potential need for a student lending facility at European level”, N° EAC/47/2009, Senior researcher

European Commission, Directorate-General for Education and Culture

2010 – 2010, “The role of loans in financing vocational education and training in Europe”, N° AO/RPA/PLI-PSZO/Loans/016/09, Head of research

CEDEFOP, European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training

2007 – 2008, “European perspectives of student lending”, Senior researcher

Collegium Budapest, Institute for Advanced Studies and British Council

2006 – 2007, “Future of higher education in Europe, International comparative analysis”, Research fellow

British Council

2005 – 2007, “Complex systems, Risk management of a special credit portfolio”, Research fellow

Collegium Budapest, Institute for Advanced Studies

2004 – 2006, “Stochastic systems and modeling of financial markets”, Research fellow

National Office for Research, Development, and Innovation, OTKA 047193

2004 – 2005, “Connection of pension and student loan systems”, Research fellow

Hungarian Ministry of Education

Research statement

My research activity corresponds to three more or less overlapping research lines: corporate sustainability, household finance, and systemic risk.

1.     Corporate sustainability

Moral hazard: In a theoretical model, we analyzed the effects of state subsidy on the behavior of the firm under asymmetric information (Berlinger, Lovas, and Juhász, 2017). We showed that in principle, an optimally designed state subsidy improves incentives. In another paper, we investigate the same question in a more complex setting: “Social enterprise under double moral hazard”.

Corporate misconducts: Most of the operational risk events (internal and external frauds, damage to physical assets, business disruptions, etc.) can be the manifestations of corporate misconduct reflected also in legal liabilities and regulatory fines. We have access to the most comprehensible database of corporate operational risk events, SAS Global Oprisk, containing the records of more than 34 thousand losses worldwide that are above a threshold of $100 thousand. In (Berlinger, Keresztúri, Lublóy, and Vőneki, 2021 and 2022), we examined loss frequencies and severities and found that country-level governance indicators are not significant explanatory variables, while press freedom is of key importance. In a country with freer media, more and larger losses are reported. We hypothesized that firms have strong incentives to hide corporate misconduct and estimated the number and size of hidden losses for each country in the sample. Fraud-detection differences in the financial and non-financial sectors are discussed in (Keresztúri, Berlinger, and Lublóy, 2022).

Following this research line, we continue our analysis at a firm level by creating a theoretical model of corporate catastrophe and testing it empirically “Self-regulation, media pressure, and corporate catastrophes”. In another paper, we seek to answer the question “Who monitors greenwashing?” by conceptualizing corporate greenwashing and quantifying its magnitude. We are also working on a "Systemic literature review on greenwashing measures" and a policy paper on "Why should green communication be an aggravating circumstance in environmental crimes?". In a paper, titled "Green Lemon Market", we build an equilibrium model under asymmetric information that explains the coexistence of brown, green, and greenwashing companies. Currently, I participate in a "Sustainable Finance" project at the University of Luxembourg and in a 4-year scientific grant from the Hungarian National Office for Research, Development, and Innovation titled “Financial liquidity and sustainability”, which provides incentives and support to carry out my research plan.

2.     Household finance

Student loans: In my Ph.D. thesis, I modeled income-contingent student loan systems. At the same time, I was involved in the design and implementation of the Hungarian student loan system. Later, as a researcher at the Collegium Budapest Institute for Advanced Studies, my research topic was the optimal control of the Hungarian student loan system. I advised the Bulgarian and Albanian governments on the design of their national student loan systems. Then, as a senior researcher, I participated in two European-level projects on student lending. In the CEDEFOP project, I researched the possibilities of extending student loans to vocational education and lifelong learning by reviewing and evaluating existing systems. In the framework of a research project initiated by The European Commission and led by Professor Nicholas Barr of the London School of Economics, we worked on the design of a new European-level student loan scheme for internationally mobile students. This research formed the basis for the Erasmus+ program, which was launched in 2015. The findings of our research were published in (Berlinger, 2009) and several policy papers.

In 2018, inconsistent interest rate policies allowed Hungarian students to arbitrage with student loans. We are just about to finalize a paper titled “Student loan arbitrage: The behavior of finance students” where we investigate why finance students do not take advantage of this massive arbitrage opportunity. I also work on my paper titled “A joint model of student loan and pension savings” in which I propose a model to make student loan and pension systems more sustainable.

Mortgage markets: Hungary was hit hard by the 2008 financial crisis due to its large stock of FX-denominated mortgages. We proposed to extend the income-contingent repayment scheme (introduced first in student lending) to non-paying FX mortgages (Berlinger and Walter, 2015). In line with this idea, we made several media appearances (FinLab blog, radio interviews, etc.) and were invited to a discussion by the Central Bank of Hungary. In the following research project, we investigated why unhedged households tend to choose so risky products such as FX or adjustable-rate loans and proposed regulatory changes to avoid this (Berlinger, 2019; Banai, Berlinger, and Dömötör, 2021). In a recent paper, we examined the role of psychological factors in financial decisions (Berlinger, Kiss, and Khayouti, 2022). In the framework of a 3-year research grant from the Ministry of Human Resources (“Financial and public services”, 2018-2021), we conducted a survey in a disadvantaged region on the effects of overdue debts on employment, bank account, and physical and mental health of the family members of the borrowers (Berlinger, Dobránszky-Bartus, and Molnár, 2021). Based on our findings, we published a paper titled “Modern pillories: Overdue debts of the poor” in which we derive both the private and the socially optimal debt relief programs and formulate policy recommendations to enhance financial inclusion.

3.    Systemic risk

Corporate risk management: Corporate-level risk management practices may stabilize or destabilize the economy at a macro level. In (Berlinger, Bihary, and Walter, 2017 and 2018), we analyzed the advantages of corporate cash-pool systems and derived a valuation formula inspired by option pricing methods. In (Berlinger, Dömötör, and Szűcs, 2021), we examined the trading data of clients of a large investment bank, looking for irrational patterns and found traces of behavioral biases such as break-even and house money effects.

Central clearing: Central clearing counterparties have become key players in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, as the regulator now requires most of the OTC transactions to be cleared centrally. Between 2013 and 2022, we validated the risk models of KELER, the central clearing counterparty in Hungary. As a result of this consultancy work, two articles have been published in prominent scientific journals related to optimal margin strategies (Berlinger, Dömötör, and Illés, 2019a,b).

Financial networks: In a research project initiated by the Central Bank of Hungary, I investigated the transactional data of the interbank deposit market, estimated bilateral partner limits, and proposed a new innovative method to alert crises (Berlinger, 2017). The idea is that a sudden concentration of the implicit partner limits may indicate an upcoming crisis even if aggregate data do not show any changes. Continuing this research line, we explain the “Emergence of a core-periphery structure” by the special structure of bilateral partner limits. In another paper “Interpersonal versus interbank lending markets: The role of intermediation in risk sharing”, we compare the interpersonal network of informal debts in a village economy where most people live in poverty and financial exclusion to a highly professional interbank network of unsecured loans.

Consultancy work

2013 – 2022,  KELER, Hungarian Central Counterparty, Validation of risk models

2011,           Albanian Government, World Bank project, Design of a student loan system

2008,           Bulgarian Government, World Bank project, Design of a student loan system

2006 – 2008,  Hungarian Post Ltd., Corporate liquidity management

2007,           Generali-Providencia Insurance Company, Derivative pricing

2006,           Hungarian Ministry of Social Affairs and Labor, Feasibility study on student lending in vocational education

2004 – 2005,  Hungarian Student Loan Centre, Stability analysis

2002,           Hungarian Development Bank, Student loan alternatives

1999 – 2001,  Hungarian Ministry of Education, World Bank project, Design and implementation of student loan systems

1999,           Procent Securities, Implementation of risk management systems

Positions and memberships

2021 – 2022, President of the Hungarian Society of Economics

2018, Secretary of the Economic Committee of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences

2016 – 2022, Member of the Assembly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences

2014 –, Member of the Economic Committee of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences

2012 – 2017, Chair of the Finance Subcommittee of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences

2010 –, Co-Leader of the “Bridge to Higher Education” voluntary program for disadvantaged students

2010 –, Chair of the Board of Trustees of the Foundation for the Finance Department

2009 – 2010, Member of the Board of Trustees of the Foundation for the Development of Financial Culture

2008 – 2011, Secretary of the Finance Subcommittee of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences

2008 –, Member of the Finance Subcommittee of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences